Is possession football dying? The tactical evolution transforming the Premier League

In the top half of the current Premier League table, six teams average less than 50% possession. One of those teams, Hull City, average only 33%.

And while the top three sides have dominated the ball, the standout performance among them was Brighton's 3-0 win over Arsenal, a pressing masterclass in which Fabian Hurzeler 's team recorded only 40% possession. This may shake out over time.

Hull may recede to the lower reaches. Tottenham (19th, 59%) usually clean up and stumble home in 17th, like a functioning alcoholic.

But the early success of low-possession sides is more than a random quirk, and follows a trend in which the close relationship between points and possession is weakening. Between 2016 and 2024 - the first eight years of Pep Guardiola in the Premier League - on the 16 occasions when a team won at least 80 points, 12 of those 16 sides averaged at least 60% possession, and three more averaged more than 58%.

Teams who dominated the league dominated the ball. Possession was nine-tenths of the law.

The only exception was Antonio Conte's Chelsea who won the 2016/17 title with wing-backs, although even Conte's team had 55% of the ball. Yet there has been a shift over the past two years.

Last season was the first for 20 years in which more Premier League games were won by the team with less possession. You can even see it in the most recent title winners - Liverpool and Arsenal - who both won the league with significantly lower average possession than Guardiola's City managed in the previous four seasons.

Was that simply because Arne Slot and Mikel Arteta were not as obsessive as Guardiola when it came to keeping the ball? But even Guardiola veered away from his possession-heavy style in his final season because he realised the game was moving in a new direction.

He evolved City into a narrower and direct team in his final months, built largely around Antoine Semenyo, a player who would have seemed positively un-Pep only a couple of years earlier. The numbers are partly skewed by certain clubs and individuals, such as the departure of Jurgen Klopp and The Spurs Phenomenon.