Opta: Milan have just 37.24% chance of Champions League qualification - the projections

We are five games into the 2026-27 Serie A season, and some updated projections have arrived from Opta. It's still too early to say what the final table will look like, but the Opta predictor - which analyses historical and statistical data and estimates the probability of teams finishing in a given position - has provided an initial overview after five games.

Read SempreMilan ad-free and get access to exclusive news. There's already a rather worrying indication from their simulations: Milan are likely to miss out on the Champions League once again.

As a reminder, they also have the Diavolo at aless than 6% chance of winning the Europa League. Top four unlikely The data is from today's Corriere dello Sport (via MilanPress ) and states that Ruben Amorim's side have a 37.24% chance of qualifying for the 2027-28 edition of the Champions League.

Opta predict that the Rossoneri will finish on 63.96 points, rounded to 64, and that will not be enough. Como and Juventus - third and fourth respectively - are projected to finish with 67.70 and 67.13 points (rounded to 68 and 67), with a Champions League chance of 52.56% and 51.19%.

Lazio and Napoli follow, with predictions of 62.75 and 61.53 points. 📸 Corriere dello Sport: Opta Predictor: the projected scenarios after five Serie A matchdays 📊pic.

com/l8lOBcWc8s - Milan Posts (@MilanPosts) September 23, 2026 According to the Opta tool, Inter and Roma will be battling for the Scudett, with the Nerazzurri expected to prevail. Chivu's team have 78.18 expected points compared to 73.15 for Gasperini's team.

The defending champions' Scudetto win percentage is 44.67% compared to the Giallorossi's 21.74%. The chance seems rather remote at 5.46%.