Premier League betting model and simulator: Five games in, what has the model learned?

ThePremier Leagueseason is five games old, giving us our first chance to compare thePremier League betting model's pre-season projections with real results and underlying performances. Each club's expected goals data from the opening five games has been added to its existing rating before the remaining 330 fixtures are simulated 20,000 times.

The early evidence has strengthened several of the positions identified before the season, while forcing a rethink elsewhere. The largest change concerns Ipswich Town, while Liverpool's title price has created another major difference between the model and the market.

How the Premier League betting model works The model uses a Dixon-Coles method to simulate the entire Premier League season rather than predicting the final table directly.