Premier League Weekend: Forest, Sunderland and Manzambi in Focus

Lewis Jones is tipping a weekend of Premier League surprises, with Nottingham Forest to beat Manchester City and Sunderland to trouble Chelsea among his most striking predictions. The selections, published ahead of the weekend fixtures, place unusual weight on timing, workload and match-specific data.

Jones argues that the final round before an international break can unsettle the formbook, especially for teams whose players have endured heavy schedules. His strongest upset call is Forest to win at 7/2, while he also backs Sunderland at 5/2 against Chelsea and expects Aston Villa's Johan Manzambi to score or assist against Manchester United.

The score predictions and odds reflect the page's publication and may change. The Forest-City argument centres on accumulated fatigue.

Jones notes that it would be Manchester City's ninth game in a month, following an international break in which some players featured four times in 10 days. The concern is not simply the number of fixtures: repeated travel and limited recovery can reduce sharpness, affecting pressing, decision-making and the ability to sustain intensity.

Jones also points to previous pre-break results that defied expectations, including Brentford's 2-1 win at City in 2022-23 and Ipswich's victory over Tottenham in 2024-25. His broader statistic is that backing every odds-on favourite in this particular pre-break round over the previous five seasons would have lost 3.4 units.

That record is a warning against treating favourites as automatic selections, rather than evidence that upsets are certain. City's workload is one factor; Forest's own performance is another.

Jones says their expected-points record suggests they should have collected nine more points than they have. If that measure reflects missed chances rather than deeper weaknesses, Forest may be due a more favourable result.

The risk in the call is that expected points do not guarantee future improvement. A team can underperform its underlying numbers because of poor finishing, defensive lapses or a persistent inability to manage games.

For Forest, the question is whether the data signals a coming correction or merely describes chances that have already gone unused. Jones' pick in Sunderland's meeting with Chelsea rests more heavily on home conditions and the hosts' record against leading sides.